@Article{MoretoRolEstVanCho:2020:SuDeSu,
author = "Moreto, Victor B. and Rolim, Glauco de S. and Esteves, Jo{\~a}o
T. and Vanuytrecht, Eline and Chou, Sin Chan",
affiliation = "{Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Universidade de
S{\~a}o Paulo (USP} and {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP} and
{Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Sugarcane decision-making support using Eta Model precipitation
forecasts",
journal = "Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics",
year = "2020",
volume = "132",
number = "3",
pages = "1--2",
note = "{Setores de Atividade: Pesquisa e desenvolvimento
cient{\'{\i}}fico.}",
keywords = "Avaliacao de Previsao, erro de previs{\~a}o, Modelo Eta.",
abstract = "Agricultural activity is largely infuenced by climatic conditions.
Rainfall is essential for crop production, and precipitation
events also interfere with soil preparation, planting, application
of pesticides and harvesting. Weather forecast models are tools to
facilitate decision making for agricultural activities, hence high
accuracy is desired. Farmers often criticize the accuracy of
weather forecasts, which sometimes fail to predict precipitation
events, leading to yield loss and environmental harm. In this
study, precipitation forecasts of the Eta Model were evaluated for
28 of Brazils most productive sugarcane areas, considering a grid
of 15×15 km. Using a combination of diferent indicators of
forecast success, observed and forecasted daily precipitation data
were compared for consecutive days of all 10-day periods in a
course of 6 years (20052010). Skill scores and performance
diagrams based on the indicators were used to evaluate the
goodness and robustness of the model forecasts. The Eta Model
forecasts showed overall accuracies ranging between 55 and 71% for
the Atlantic forest biomes (located North-West and South-East of
S{\~a}o Paulo) and the Cerrado biomes (located in the Goi{\'a}s
State and in the Center-North S{\~a}o Paulo State), respectively.
The forecasts were most reliable for up to 4 days, showing an
accuracy of 60%. Forecasts for periods of more than 4 days had an
average accuracy of 4050%. The probability of detecting rainfall
correctly was the strongest characteristic of Eta Model, with more
than 70% hits.",
doi = "10.1007/s00703-020-00738-1",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00738-1",
issn = "0177-7971",
label = "lattes: 4336175279058172 5 MoretoRolEstVanCha:2020:SuDeSu",
language = "en",
targetfile = "moreto_sugarcane.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}